Political pundits in Luo Nyanza are busy predicting the outcome of the next year’s general election in the region where a number of Raila Odinga’s close political associates are expected to be kicked out of power. Among those expected to be in the list of the first casualties include Nyakach MP Aduma Owuor, Mbita MP Millie Odhiambo, Ndhiwa MP Augustino Neto, Kasipul MP Oyugi Magwanga, Peter Kaluma of Homa-Bay Town and Omondi Anyanga of Nyatike.
In Nyakach the immediate former MP Ochieng’ Daima’s star has risen and he has built a formidable support base at the grassroot. In Muhoroni, Raila is grooming the former area MP Ayieko Olweny to oust Onyango K’oyoo. But the situation on the ground is in favour of K’oyoo, and therefore should ODM bigwigs make a grave mistake of denying K’oyoo the party’s nomination certificate in favour of Ayieko as they did in 2013, ODM will lose the seat. K’oyoo’s attractive development record speaks volumes. In Mbita, Millie is to face a Kisumu businessman Jimmy Akali who has made major inroads into the constituency in recent months. Millie is also facing another hurdle in Rusinga Island where Nairobi business magnate Sammy Wakiaga hails from.
Although Wakiaga is strictly a reserved man and talks less about the MP, their iron lady of Homa-Bay politics has been quoted in other quarters as invoking some old issues regarding her family’s feuds with the Wakiaga’s family, something, which the islanders do not take lightly, taking into account that Wakiaga is also contesting the Homa-Bay gubernatorial position against the incumbent Cyprian Awiti.
Akali who hails from Lambwe West on the mainland works with the Ogra Foundation as an accountant. He has been conducting fundraisers in Mbita during weekends. An electoral area which is likely to produce fireworks is the contest for Kisumu senate seat. Fred Outa, Raila’s right handman and a relative who is the outgoing Nyando MP has switched to the senate seat and would now contest against the populist former Gor Mahia FC chairman Ocholla Ogoda. The latter originally hails from Nyakach but has settled in Muhoroni settlement scheme where there are many voters from Nyakach. Outa could end up regretting his decision to abandon Nyando seat for the senate because the outcome of this election is likely to be unpredictable.
The campaign battle for Suba East is expected to be the toughest. In 2013, the immediate former MP John Pesa claimed to have won the ODM primary nomination but was deliberately denied the party’s nomination certific ate, which was issued in favour of Mohammed Junnet who late alleges that he bought the certificate with Sh7 million, though he did not specify from who. In the coming election, another business tycoon Patrick Odipo is expected to give both Junnet and Pesa a run for their money.
In Kasipul, Magwanga who as declared that he was about to abandon his safe parliamentary seat in favour of contesting for the governorship against Awiti will live to regret. Magwanga who hails from a small minority immigrant sojourners with Suba connection cannot be any match to the popular Awiti unless he is contemplating to be a running-mate of another aspirant.
In Uriri, John Kobado is likely to be a one-term MP because he is facing no ordinary opponent, but a Mombasa businessman Paul Odhiambo
In Rongo, the area MP Dalmas Otieno, a seasoned politician has remained quiet for sometime, and not even visiting the constituency regularly since he was appointed by Uhuru Kenyatta to head the South Sudan peace initiatives, sparking the rumours that he intends to go in for in the Migori senate seat. Otieno has, however, kept his secret to his chest. But if he chooses to run for the senate, he will definitely win because he is highly respected politician.
In the neigbouring Awendo constituency, MP Jared Kopiyo is another MP who is likely to be among the next election’s causalities. He won the seat in 2013 on a PDP party of Omingo Magara. The MP, a former high school principal is facing accusations of being slippery and excessive arrogance.
K’opiyo will battle it out with Richard Kobala whose wave of popularity is sweeping the region like tsunami.